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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."